PKR “Elected Office Bearers and Official Results”

The final results were all tallied and announced at around 6.15pm at both the counting centres of Petra Jaya and Stampin Divisional Meetings. There were excitement all round at both centres as the results were announced.

The Petra Jaya Ketua Cabang is now headed by Zulrusdi Bin Haji Mohamad Hol who received 67 votes while Ramlee bin Mahtar garnered 41 votes with 6 spoilt votes.. The Deputy Cabang was won by Azman Salleh who received 77 votes with Idwar Baharuddin at 36 votes and there was 2 spoilt votes. 

The Naib Ketua Cabang at the Stampin saw a three cornered fight in which there were some very tense moments and even a so called “friendly shouting match” was heard amongst the lady candidates. It was only natural as elections bring out the true characters and personalities of each candidate. Chow Ah Hong received 20 votes while Nazarudin @Madi B,Drahman notched up 52 while the victorius Voon Shiak Ni topped at 98 votes with 4 spoilt votes.

Immediatedly after victory she spoke to audie61 and we asked her,”Where do you go from here?”  She punched the air and told us this is the “FORCE OF THE STATE WANITA WING” The strength of the wing is tested again and we have overcome like we did when we went into the Sibu Parliamentary elections. She was quick to thank her team of election supporters who helped her to campaign and she briefly mentioned the following to be included in our article:-She thanked the The State Wanita chief  Ibi Uding and the State wanita colleagues for their support and also the Stampin Wanita Chief Narbriella Illyana Abdullah. Voon also said,”this is indeed healthy for PKR and it shows that PKR believes in the grassroot and the supporters have chosen the ones to lead them for 3 years.

The Timbalan Ketua Cabang for Stampin was won by Loo Chao Min who polled 107 votes to Yunus B Ahmad Zaid who managed 65 votes. The counting of the votes  which was  witnessed earlier by the  press and bloggers  as PKR practises Transperancy and Accountability nearly blew over when one of the counting agents requested the it to be a “family sort of affair”. Not to create an unhealthy scenario the media boys left quietly but begrudgingly. 

The final result of the afternoon was the much awaited and anticipated result of who leads Stampin Cabang. See Chee How the Sarawak State Infromation Chief was challenged by the Batu Kawah Ranting  Chief Soo Lina. When the results was announced and Chee How polled 110 to Soo Lina 60 with 5 spoilt votes Chee How thanked her for putting up a good fight. Both sets of supporters agreed its time to close ranks,consolidate and fight the common enemy in the next State elections which will be called very soon.

“Too Much Blogging …??”

Oooh Yes !My EYES Absolutely

Cooling……………

The past few weeks of BLOGGING has

taken its toll.Wow! JUST Great!

TRY IT..

“35 years On…Have we changed..??”

Fancy this…?? After 35 years I found my long lost friend.Where else..? In the internet in Facebook. Times have changed and in this technological savvy world we have to use whatever resources and ways to STAY AHEAD OF THE COMPETITION. 

This today could be my mosts useless piece I have ever written on audie61 but who cares..!! Even Simon Cowell (American Idol Judge) has his dark moods where everything seems a no and a no.

audie61 hasn’t got over the fact that yesterday an old friend had a right all go at one of our ministers. It was headline news,’ Talking behind lorries with microphone.” by the DAP. He said to me ‘What if the DAP becomes government and the PBB minister had to do it that way..??” Over 50 years BN has been in power and they are telling people that they should not do this or do that.

Just remember the whole world is changing and people cannot be fooled anymore. The YBs are people representative  and they should be on the ground and not so high in the clouds as if nobody can touch them. It’s time to wake up  and BN better take heed.

Even today at breakfast one of my source said,” SUPP losts because they were not united and one of the senior Ministers in SUPP openly said that DAP will push the knife further in if we dont wake up.It could be the beginning of the end for once a great party but 50 years down the road they forget who are the grassroots and forget to listen to even the smallest of problem.”

In the Facebook and thanks to the creators of this wonderful programme that we can make use of this to find our long lost friends. 35 years is not a short period and to absolutedly lost touch and to able to communicate again is JUST WONDERFUL AND FABULOUS. You will be asking me next..Who huh! Must be somebody special.Of course it is and tears just rolled of my cheeks when I saw the photo.Brilliant..!!

BN as the government of the day should look into connecting the world to Malaysia further with access to the rural areas where even the most inaccessible place in Malaysia can enjoy this facility. DAP is right they make use of whatever presents them while it seems the BN has overlooked the tinest details.

The heartbeat of the nation is People Power and the people would love to see like what the PM practise walking with the people. (Some even say PM is putting himself at risks and should not do it.. huh! how narrowminded!) Unfortunatedly the majority of the YBs and MPs forget where they come from. No use me knocking them down and its up to PM Najib to sort his troops out.

The frustrations of the people will turn to protests in the ballot boxes and  if BN does not feel the pulse of the nation even FACEBOOK cannot save them. Its a wake up call the Sibu losts to the BN says a youth exco of the ruling BN government. We need to take it by the chin and move on and like a fighter we will not give up easily.     

Its time the elder leaders in BN entrust the youth and harness their potential. By gripping on to power too long will not only see BN losing touch with the people but also eventually be wiped out if we are not careful. 

Governments around the whole has changed dramatically and BN is really lucky that there are examples to follow. We need now to see how we learn from the opposition and do it better and make it happen.

Alright,we have more wrinkles on our faces,maybe less hair and put on a bit of weight but deep down we know that we as Malaysians want our country to progress with change and stay ahead as always like when we use to say,” MALAYSIA BOLEH.” Its yours Malaysia for you and me  and whoever gets it right be it 35 years on finding another friend be it.It’s 1Malaysia in heart and spirit if we are challenged by another country or attacked  thats for sure..

Have you changed and thought about it..? Oh no,that was rubbish I wrote but this is a blog right..?

DAP Sarawak 9 Points,”Ending Taib Rule ..??”

DAP Sarawak appears to be on Cloud 9 after last weeks P212 victory in the byelections. Now the State committee has even come out with 9 Points to lead the PR 4 coalition in its ‘war”against BN4. A few days ago Pakatan has also adopted “Sarawaks football very own 90s War Cry -Ngap Sayot.

Today DAP Sarawak has issued a manifesto called “Sarawak for Change – The Sibu Declaration” On one hand they are also copying and using a famous chant from the terraces similar to Singapores Kallang Roar with Sarawaks very own “Ngap Sayot”

 Lest we forget to tell them “It also had the BlackCat as the mascot and it had also the 3 mysterious rings circling and floating above the round bowl of water..??”. Will Pakatan adopt some kind of ‘PEOPLE MAGIC…??” Will we know..?? Or will there be another similar ” Joan of Arc” personality leading the charge..??

 DAP with its Enough is Enough will be hoping that its a new future for Sarawak and Malaysia. BN will surely counter the 9 Points manifesto and it will be up to the Peoples Power to see who will still lead the State after the next Sarawak State Elections. DAP will need to work hard and not to take one victory as a signal for Peoples Trust on them. The bubble will also burst and BN will also not take it lying down after losing P212 Sibu.

The main points raised in the declaration were:

 

1. Good governance = no more Taib

“Taib’s family through Cahaya Mata Sarawak (CMS) and other crony companies control the most lucrative contracts and businesses, impoverishing the rakyat while making life difficult for small businesses.”

Stressing that Taib will have been in office for three decades by next year, the declaration promises good governance, adding, “It’s time that we take the mandate back from Taib and herald a new era of reform and rejuvenation for Sarawak.”

2. Equal partnership

The party promises equal partnership in political coalition and in federal-state relations. They contrast Sarawak BN whose “sole purpose … is to prop up Taib’s empire. Nationally, resource-rich Sarawak has been given a raw deal.”

3. CAT governance

The DAP promises belief in the principles of ‘Competency, Accountability and Transparency’ (CAT) governance.

“We listen and engage with all citizens, not just those with the money. Less corruption means more for everyone. Sarawak is rich.

“By having open tender to all government procurements, timber extraction licenses and alienation of state lands for commercial and plantation purposes, all Sarawakians will be richer.”

4. Senior citizens’ bonus

“When DAP and Pakatan Rakyat become the Government of Sarawak, all Sarawakians above 60 years of age will receive a minimum of RM400 per annum in appreciation of their contribution to the state.”

5. Hardcore poverty

The declaration promises “an annual RM 80 million allocation from the State budget will be set up to eradicate hardcore poverty in Sarawak.”

6. Education

The DAP also promises “all schools regardless of background will be given allocations according to needs as practised in Penang, Selangor and Kelantan,” should they take over the state government.

7. Oil royalty

“Pakatan Rakyat National Common Policy Platform commits to provide Sarawak 20 percent in oil royalties from Petronas, instead of the current 5 percent, if Pakatan Rakyat wins federal power.”

8. Land reform

It also promises, should Pakatan assume state government, “all NCR land will be surveyed and titles (communal and individual) issued while all expiring leases will be unconditionally renewed. With lands accessible to the people and not cronies, we believe that the great economic potential of Sarawak will be unleashed.”

9. Investing in the future

The final declaration vows to pay “serious attention” to the flood problems in the state, as well as invest in “human capital and infrastructure,” promising free WiFi to “move Sarawak into a knowledge state.”

Sarawak N30 “Dr.Wahbi Dreams”

Dr.Wahbi Junaidi knows he is really under attack. In the last state elections 2006 he barely scrapped through by winning a razor thin majority by 94 votes over the Keadilan candidate.”Is it Dr.Wahbi’s Way of telling his BN counterparts in so many words a “Wake up call or extraordinary just like what Susan Boyle did in the UK “Youve Got Talent Show” 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lp0IWv8QZY

Is he getting all cooked up and blaming it on DCM Jabu..?His emotions reflects that he is afterall human and he needs his dosage of development funds too or else he too will be wiped out. A political analyst says that there seems to be like a mini revolt against the top leaders who have overstayed in their capacity not only in SUPP but also PBB.

Dr.Wahbi doesn’t minced his words and he is really fighting for his dear life as an Assemblyman and if he is still picked to be a candidate in the coming state elections. Dr Wahbi is trying to tell the top leaders that,”If they are sent to war based on irritation or ego instead of solid strategy(Sun Tsu) the whole BN machinery in Saribas will pay the price.” He knows that there is a fine line in how much he can take and also seeing that his position is absolutedly precarious and he too will be wiped up.

The PAS machinery has made inroads in the malay kampong areas and with the PR4 (PAS,DAP,PKR and SNAP)in action anything will happen and Saribas will no longer be a safe seat for the BN. Its not about looks like what Susan Boyle has proven to all of us but the mystery behind the voice.

A PBB supporter says PR4 has managed in some way being able to unlock the mindset of the rural folks and their inroads needs to be curbed or slowly,piece by piece they will tear down the framework which BN has solidly built for 50 years. Wake up call..Yes..

What has Dr.Wahbi said which has the DUN Members felt that their hair suddenly stood on ends. This statement” He said people had asked him how it was possible that the government spent RM300mil building a complex “like a mini-Putrajaya” in Betong .  In addition, he said the people were also puzzled as to why a 4km road connecting Kampung Mangut and Tuie was still not built despite a request made 10 years ago

Has Dr.Wahbi suddenly woken up especially after BN was beaten in P212 Sibu by DAP/PR. He has taken the initiative and become bold and mosts of all creative again after being suppressed from sharing the development funds. DCM Jabu must be irked that a member/colleague from his party is making noise and not informing him directly.

But Wahbi is so afraid and he has made the right call and at the mosts appropriate time when Jabu was even touted to be a candidate to take over the helm and the CMs chair. BN is now opening up to see where are the areas to be addressed before the CM calls for the State elections.

Goodies given during election time will not sway the voters minds and BN assemblyman are now ensuring their promises are kept and carried out or else they will be shipped up by the flood of People Power.  P212 has really given the BN a scarred back and a deflated ego and Dr Wahbi’s outburst of the truth is very timely.

BN4 and PR4 will be at odds soon and its the coalitions policies and the calibre candidates which will win over the trusts of the constituents in Sarawak. Are you ready to join in the fray…??

Sarawak “New Merger Entity..??”

The sparks flew off the breakfast table this morning when the SNAP Youth Chief said to audie61,”PR 4(DAP,PKR,PAS and SNAP] worked as a Team in the just concluded P212 elections. BN 4( PBB,SUPP,SPDP,PRS) were not oiled together whereby PM Najib even said BN lacked creativity and energy as compared to the Opposition.

This has CM Taib saying that BN Sarawak has to study all factors before they can reinvent itself. Could the New merger be a new platform for change. Instead of having 4 Presidents there might be a cause to celebrate for Taib to ensure he is still in power and the people of Sarawak will see that he means it. {Power they say is the ability to change things.So if he has power and dont use it Taib will be wasting it]

Another powerful message which will do well for Taib to strategise is changing the rules of the game. What merging between SPDP/PRS but to do it well and thinking above it all is the merging of SPDP/SUPP and also to ensure PRS is under control by ensuring the leaders are moved into PBB. There will be two Presidents and this two entities will have a Collective Agreement to be CM for two terms only. Oh Wow! Not a bad idea !!Will it work..??

A PBB Youth exco member said,”It’s not such a bad idea as if we in BN do not think this way we will be irrelavant as Peoples Power will overtake us as a party in BN. Just remember Michael Jordon who was well loved ,liked and a realist. He said,”Some people want it to happen,some wish it to happen and others make it happen.” Taib in his twilight years will be a legend in own right if he makes it happen for the BETTER GOOD OF SARAWAK.

Who says he has already found his successor like the malaysikini internet portal report which suggests that Norah Abdul Rahman is the person shortlisted, When James Masing said his piece in the Star report that has the heading”point of no return” and in it he says he supports the merger plan but with certain conditions. What conditions again says a political analyst..?

If he is playing hardball what if Taib he says decides to see a merger of SUPP/SPDP and ensure that PRS will be taken into PBB. Why not and it fits nicely with Jabu and James in one party in Pesaka while Mawan and George in the new merged entity. Would you dare not to think it will happen. Its far fetched but if BN Sarawak is weakened instead of getting stronger isn’t this an option..? Think and this is an interesting idea which can be worked out with committees formed to look into the details and mechanisms. Its a strategic power move.

Mawan the SPDP supremo when approached on the merger of SPDP/PRS entity decided to keep quiet to the press as he knows that by keeping silent he is actually showing his “ability and strength” and does not want to be sandwiched into making a rather Uncalculated move as what James has let himself into and making a provoking statment in,”except for one or two persons” whom PRS was not comfortable with. So will he be comfortable if CM says to him “its time to step aside and join PBB”

If it happens the Sarawak Peoples Power will see that the political parties have put aside selfishness and being power driven and will put together political parties as more People Orientated and an Administration to spark economic growth.

 This will even spark Malaysia into thinking into the electronic age of polling like Philippines and also set a Fixed Election Date. This will stop all the politiking in the country and it will ensure that Malaysians will start trusting Politics as a Profession as once every five years at a certain date which is fixed will onlysee the country going for a fresh mandate and there will be less of the blame game. 

Perfect! Unless if  the whole system reengineers, reinvents and be be more creative with parties merging and sees that the People Power will eventually be hard to stem out this will not materialise. Najib and Anwar are both visionaries and leaders in their own right. Najib with 1 Malaysia while Anwar with a New Dawn for Malaysia. So Taib must be commended to was he will create a legend of his own in Sarawak.

This might just be his biggest break and above all his 29 years of service as CM.He is at the top of the pyramid and he must thank the SNAP youth Chief for sparking it all of. Taib will not be silent on this entity as he will do well to disclose more than too little to his close inner circles.

 It will all be Taibs story to tell and with that the Machiavelli and Sun Tsu’s strategies will be enhanced further. Taib will not be pushed into submission and he will have the solutions to ensure the Peoples Trusts are won back.

 Didnt we tell you he has been in power for 29 years as CM and has served 5 Prime Ministers..?? You will live to tell your granchildren,”He did it and it happened and Sarawak is blessed…..”Are you still THERE..??

P212..”The Blame Game Starts in BN ??

What will be the main cause..Poor turnout “NO WAY.. !!” Its too feeble an excuse. BN Sarawak should look at its coalition partners in this aftermath. PR with DAP/PKR/PAS and SNAP are solid in unity ,” Berganding Bahu “ We will give you more in the days to come.

The Blame Game will start from Najib down and we did warn Najib about it as he has the people to read audie61…….

audie61 would like to congratulate the new MP for P212 Sibu Wong Ho Leng…………

The Final Results:-

Votes cast – 37,919 votes
Turnout – 70%
Spoilt votes – 395 votes
Majority – 398 votes
Postal votes – 2,429 votes

P212″Your Votes Count”

 Goodnight thanks everyone for followng audie61

WONG HO LENG wins by 398 votes official  SIBU – DAP wins with 18845, BN 18447, Ind 232, Majority is 398

Latest 10.50pm :- SIBU – Wong Ho Leng and Lim Guan Eng arrives at counting centre

No wonder they say Sarawakians are so laid back now only they realise about the Tsunami 2008. Have they woken up says a political watcher ..??

sms received so sarcastic,” Aiyoh! Conduct election in one constituency so hard. How to conduct nationwide general election leh

Another caller told audie61″#Sibu #P212 it looks like aft nearly 2 hrs, SPR managd 2 reduce DAP postal votes by 17. Proceedg now 2 Civic centre 4 official anncmt

Official announcement at 12midnight when everyone asleep says an irate caller to audie61

Seems the whole world  knows this is an information technological world and news travels faster than the speed of light..Hmm says a voter

So many BN supporters surprised.DAP won Kah..?? Why because they were all busy doing their own and not helping SUPP

Something wrong here someone tweet audie61: Bernama earlier reported there are 2,537 postal votes, but now Mkini reports there are 2,572 postal ballots..HUH….!!!

Tweet from Lim Kit Siang 

#P212 Ppl of #SibuSwakMsia n world watching whether there is going 2b Election Commission scandal bcos Najib does not want 2admit defeat

OFFICIAL BN 16124 IND 196 DAP 18775 majority 2651 for DAP. Postal votes not tallied.

The counting of postal votes has ended. However, DAP scrutineers are unable to get Form 15 – the official tally signed by the returning officer.

It is understood that BN has won 2,300 out of a total 2,571 postal votes. This will translate into a DAP victory with a margin of 300 votes.

DAP candidate Wong Ho Leng refuses to claim victory as yet.

“I don’t want comment. Please wait for the official announcement,”

Tweet from Lim Kit Siang 

limkitsiang:  #P212 Is there any attempt 2steal #Sibu byelection from great ppl of Sibu after a great campaign involving PM DPM n Swak CM?

Illogical says a politcal watcher 2571 postal votes cannot even be counted till now. So backwards while 32000 votes already done..Please accept defeat like a MAN

At the close of polls at 5pm today, only 32,742 registered voters bothered to cast their ballots, or 59.86%, said the EC. Now…But if you add the figures of the unofficial tally DAP 18570, BN 15980 and independent 201, you get 34751 – which is more than the votes cast of 32742!

Now, that’s a big Hmmmm..

After claiming victory DAP leaders now holding their breath with postal votes untallied and turnout expected to be revised upwards

RECOUNT IT SEEMS…..The final result may not be announced anytime soon. The 2,571 postal votes are still being counted. All DAP leaders leave the party’s operations room in Sibu for Wisma Sanyan where the postal votes are being tallied.

DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang wants to know what is holding up the Election Commission from announcing the by-election result.

Goodnite everybody have a nice day tomorrow…from all of us at audie61.

9.00PM PKR Wanita Sarawak called audie61 and confirmed DAP/PR has won P212. Congrats to the new MP for Sibu 212

857pm :- DPM has postponed schedule press conference to tomorrow. DAP leaders arriving at counting centre

855pm No official results yet

851 pm Tweet from counting centre UNOFFICIAL: DAP WON but majority between 100-300. Re-count possible. BN leaders left tallying centre but DAP CEC has yet to declare victory. However individual DAP leaders like Jeff Ooi and Anthony Loke admitted victory and Deputy Education Minister Wee Ka Siong admitted defeat.

845pm Lim Kit Siang Tweet( Told BN leaders left counting centre virtually admitting defeat. Some time b4 off results are known awaiting postal ballot.

8,30 pm DAP members already celebrating at the DAP operations centre.

8.25p Latest DAP /PR set to win

Latest now DAP 18211 votes  get so far!!!!

Latest 8.15pm Total votes DAP 17120 (2008-15903 )majority 3279 95.49% counted!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Latest 8.05pm  DAP has increased its lead to 3,130 votes. About 93.9% of votes have been counted so far.

DAP – 16,786
BN – 13,656
Ind – 136

Majority – 3,130

Latest 8.00pm Wait for Official counting.

7.52pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has increased its lead to 3,048 votes. About 92.6% of votes have been counted so far.

DAP – 16,538
BN – 13,490
Ind – 136

Majority – 3,048

Latest 7.58 pm unconfirmed source  DAP wins P212 by 281 votes

Latest 750Pm See Chee How PKR Sarawak Information chief is already saying DAP/PR will win .

Latest 745pm DAP 16178 BN 13156 majority 3022 with 94 of 110 boxes counted

Latest 7.41pm

DAP – 15,981
BN – 13,061
Ind – 134

Majority – 2,920

7.40 pm Nail Biting finish Malay/Melanau and postal votes not yet counted

7.33 pm  2,817 votes w 87.9% counted DAP – 15,655
BN – 12,838
Ind – 132

Majority – 2,817 { 90 of 110 boxes counted

7.30 pm Postal votes are tallying now

7.25pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has again increased its lead to 2,236 votes. About 81% of votes have been counted so far. DAP – 14,283 BN – 12,047 Ind – 129 Majority – 2,236

715pm 78/110 SALURAN
DAP: 12966
BN 11389
MAJORITY: 1577

7.10 pm  66 of 110 boxes counted DAP 10773 BN 9229 Majority 1544

7.00pm There will be a swing to BN says a political watcher.just watch

6,56 pm Excluding Postal votes (2537)

6.55pm DAP leading by 1544 votes

6.50pm: Rain starts to fall in Sibu as ballot boxes continue to stream into the counting centre at the main tally centre in Dewan Suarah

6.46pm: The Election Commission announces that the voter turnout for today’s by-election is 59.86% or 32,742 voters. The total in postal votes are 2,537.

6.42pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has further increased its lead to 914. So far, 59 out of 110 polling streams, or about 54% of votes, have been counted.

DAP – 9,188
BN – 8,274
Ind – 89

Majority – 914

According to the latest unofficial tally in the polling stations which have closed early, BN has increased its lead to 1,930 votes. So far, 16 out of 110 polling streams have been counted.

BN – 2,959
DAP – 1,029
Ind – 18

Majority – 1,930

Of the 16 polling streams counted, at least 10 are from Iban areas where DAP is expected to lose

Latest 5PM- Polls closed

Latest 1.50 PM- PKR Sarawak Info chief from polling site. The voters are all so friendly and they is no way both BN/PR can tell that the voters are voting for WHO. This is like a Silent Movie Show. Even BN are as puzzled by the Voters from Sungei Bidut and Teku areas as they are friendly to all sides. There is no harassment or shouting match between both sets of supporters.

Church services have concluded and increase in voters in Urban areas now, Traffic Jam in Sibu

 Latest 1.30 PM– BN very confident of winning dayak areas. PKR Wanita Sarawak exco remarked that they have made very significant inroads in the last few days. Will be able to garner 30-35% of Iban voters an increase of at least 15%. She chuckled when some one said “DAP according to the Iban wanita was termed ‘Communists” Now they are awakened that its an alternate party to BN. Hmmm. talk about not being informed..

Today 16th May 2010 is polling day for P212 Sibu to choose the candidate who will be the Member of Parliament to represent Sibu Constituency in Parliament. Its your choice and its up to the individual to cast their votes as all political parites have made their intentions known and delivered their messages.

So Voters your votes count and come out to vote in the morning as the Meteorological Department forecast isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.  Polling ends at 5 pm and the official result is expected to be around 9pm.

Click Here to follow sites:-

•  http://anilnetto.com/malaysian-elections/live-eve-of-polling-for-sibu-by-election/
• http://zorro-zorro-unmasked.blogspot.com/ 

P212 Sibu “Could it be False Alarm..??”

Frantic phone calls are being made to all BN supporters and sympathisers that this by election DAP/PR is gaining momentum. ,”We need a Final push and everyone is needed.”Even the PM is making a third appearance into Sibu and he will be at Rajang Park tonight for a Final Push for Votes.  

Even the sms which audie61 received states,”Pls get all your frens and relatives to Vote for BN.We really need to boost up last round of efforts to win d support of d voters.” TQVM for your kind support. What could have spark this reaction…? A political analysts said its this report from Malaysiakini which has really up the ante for BN…

DAP to win Sibu by 500 votes:-

Having not been in Malaysia for the past three years, I was surprised by some of the physical changes back home, including the rise of new commercial and residential developments in my home town, or should I say, home city, of Petaling Jaya.

Even the DAP headquarters in Section 20 in Paramount Gardens has gone though a significant face-lift. The few times I drove past this building this week, however, revealed a surprising lack of activity in the HQ of what is now the largest opposition party in the country and a party which holds more parliamentary and state seats than MCA, MIC and Gerakan combined.

It suddenly dawned on me that the whole administrative and leadership structure of DAP in Peninsular Malaysia had temporarily relocated to Sibu.

The DAP has been itching for an electoral fight since March 2008. Both PAS and PKR have had numerous opportunities to mobilise their electoral machinery for their respective candidates in the previous 10 post-March 2008 by-elections. Sibu finally presents an opportunity for DAP to do the same for its own candidate.

That this contest would be a close one was never in doubt. The BN won this seat in 2008 with only 53% of the popular vote and against a divided opposition. Even in the midst of the Pak Lah ‘tsunami’ in 2004, the SUPP won this seat with only 54% of the popular vote.

Most of the analysis, reports and betting odds are in favour of the BN at the time of writing. However, the betting odds seemed to have narrowed significantly over the past week, down to approximately 1,000 votes in BN’s favour. The odds will probably narrow further come polling day tomorrow.

I have been wrong in my analysis in predicting the eventual winner (Hulu Selangor) and the margin of victory (Kuala Terengganu) in previous by-elections.

A good friend of mine observed that my predictions tend to be a little over-exuberant, shall we say, usually in favour of the Pakatan Rakyat candidate. This is not based on any inherent bias (though I have my own personal political preferences) but rather on the methodological framework and analytical assumptions I use in predicting by-election outcomes.

With this in mind, I will once again stick my neck out and predict a narrow DAP victory by less than 500 votes.

What is my prediction based on?

Decline in Chinese support

Firstly, I expect a decline in the Chinese support for SUPP. This should not be a surprise to anyone. Without an expected decline in the Chinese support, there is no possibility of a DAP victory in this 67% Chinese-majority seat.

The crucial question here is the extent of the decline in Chinese support. In the 2008 general election, the estimated level of Chinese support for SUPP was 37%. A conservative estimate would put the decline at less than 5%. A more aggressive estimate would give the DAP as much as 70% of the Chinese vote.

My prediction is based on the assumption that DAP would get somewhere between 68% to 69% of the Chinese vote. In a close race such as this, where every vote counts, a 1% swing in the Chinese vote translates roughly into a difference of 500 votes in the overall majority.

There are a number of factors which can account for the expected fall in the Chinese support for BN. Unhappiness with the incumbent chief minister and the uncertainty of the impending leadership transition, infighting within SUPP, a number of campaign issues which can have local salience, such as the ‘Allah’ issue, are some of the more prominent factors.

The crucial point here is that there are a number of factors which can, and probably will, decrease the level of Chinese support for SUPP, and there are few campaign issues which can be used by the Sarawak-based party to counter attack DAP. Hence, the only direction the Chinese support for SUPP can take is down.

But unless the swing in the Chinese vote is significant – by 7% or more – DAP still needs to swing some of the Iban vote in its favour.

The level of Iban support for SUPP was approximately 80% in 2008. A 1% swing in the Iban vote will result in a change of 100 votes in the overall majority. If some of the salient local issues, including the ‘Allah’ issue – which is much more likely to affect the practice of Christianity among the BM-speaking Iban compared to the Chinese- and English-speaking Foochow – have traction, it would not be surprising to see a slight decrease in the Iban vote.

My prediction is based on a swing of 5% in the Iban vote against SUPP, and in my opinion, it’s a rather conservative estimate.

I assume that there is no change in the level of Melanau/Malay support for SUPP, which will remain at a high level of approximately 85% – the 2008 level. It would be naive to think that PAS would be able to swing any Melanau/Malay support to the DAP candidate given that it has almost no grassroots presence in Sarawak.

Finally, I also assume that BN will have a dominant 2,500-vote majority in the postal votes, which was what it was in 2008. This majority may shift slightly because the latest electoral roll shows that there are slightly over 2,500 postal voters in the constituency.

DAP leaders seem hungrier

Apart from the uncertainty associated with predicting changes in voting patterns by ethnic group, there are also the challenges associated with predicting the impact of some of the ‘immeasurables’, notably vote-buying and postal-vote tampering.

My prediction has already factored in vote-buying in that I assume that the same level of vote-buying that had been practiced would continue to have the same effect. Of course, in a by-election, the stakes are much higher which means that more money and incentives can be thrown in at the eleventh hour to swing the necessary number of votes to win the by-election in question. This was one of the contributory factors in the BN victory in Hulu Selangor.

However, given the already high levels of support for SUPP among the Iban and the Malay/Melanau areas, my belief is that the impact of additional resources spent on vote-buying will not have any additional effect on the voting behaviour of these groups of voters.

In other words, those who could not be ‘bought off’ before, for whatever reason, in the previous elections, would not be able to be ‘bought off’ this time around, even with greater monetary incentives.

In terms of postal-vote tampering, since polling agents from the respective parties are not allowed to observe the voting process, the usual practices associated with ‘pressuring’ postal voters, mostly in the army in the case of Sibu, may be ramped up. But again, given the already high percentage of SUPP support among postal voters (94% in 2008), I do not anticipate a significant increase in the majority gained by SUPP from the postal votes.

In addition, I do not take into account of the small but possibly significant factor of the independent candidate, Nawawi Haron, who may take a handful of crucial Malay/Melanau votes away from BN.

I end with where I began – back at the DAP headquarters.

My sense is that the DAP leaders are desperate to win this by-election. All internal feuds, which were not as serious as the ones faced by PKR in Hulu Selangor, have been put aside for this by-election.

It seems that the Peninsular-based DAP leaders have allowed Sarawak DAP to ‘run the show’ as it were and provide the necessary support in other ways. This was not an advantage enjoyed by DAP in 2008.

The DAP leaders seem hungrier and more motivated. They know that every vote counts and are willing to work as hard as possible to turn out every single pro-opposition voter. I think it is this motivation that will provide the final edge for DAP to emerge victorious with a paper-thin margin of less than 500 votes.

 

ONG KIAN MING holds a PhD in political science from Duke University.

 

P212″ Forget SNAP,PRS Where is PCM..??”

A political watcher emailed audie61,” Seems the headlines in todays newspapers are “SNAP in Marudi,PRS in Bintulu.” But amazingly the question on everyones lips are ,”Where is the much hyped Parti Cinta Malaysia(PCM)?? Didn’t they say they will stand in 40 seats in the next Sarawak State elections.? Incidently as per an internet portal this was mentioned,” When the prime minister visited Sarawak, PCM leaders were at the Kuching Airport to greet him. Are the PCM leaders going all out to secure the Dayak votes for  the BN..?

It seems that SNAP are now having second thoughts or they could have been harassed to submission and its wiser to stay away from the HOTLY CONTESTED P212 By election?

PRS is also not spared  and eventhough the leaders have been seen campaigning the TDC in Bintulu should have been postponed to a later date (1 week or 2 weeks later). Maybe James unknowingly uttered the wrong words especially on SUPP overlooking the Bumiputeras. 

However the agenda could be BN wants its component party PRS  to hold its TDC at this moment in time with the DUN Meeting starting on 17th of May it could signal the last DUN before the impending Sarawak State elections. 

CM looks all ready to call for a SNAP ELECTIONS and if the SUPP/BN P212 is an overwhelming victory and a clear majority/mandate he will just have the INSPIRATION.  Afterall he is the guests of honour and he will officiate the TDC in Bintulu on May15th 2010.

PCM might just be following the by elections on the sidelines and trying to pick up what issues are relevant to be used for the State elections. Or have they been asked and instructed to keep a low profile..?

PRS has the agenda , SNAP according to the headline”desert” but PCM remains anonymous. Could we see them in the next State elections…???