P212″Robin Finally Welcomes Batman”

The sms read ,”Bro all the Tension of the Past week from both BN/PR campaigners is enough to drive one up the building. Posts this sign of the faceless Robin/Batman just to ease the mood.Superman soon.” Cheer us up O. K. Tq

Well,audie61 and crew certainly would like to do just that and we know what our fellow blogger meant. Robin is YB Chong Chieng Jen and now he has Batman in YB Wong Ho Leng  and they both can fight for Sarawak that is Kuching and Sibu in Parliament.

 Superman they say will be from Miri and that is where you have to work out from which constituency. 

Anyway, more serious stuff soon and lets get ready for the war Sarawak State elections after the battle of P212 Sibu.

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P212..”The Blame Game Starts in BN ??

What will be the main cause..Poor turnout “NO WAY.. !!” Its too feeble an excuse. BN Sarawak should look at its coalition partners in this aftermath. PR with DAP/PKR/PAS and SNAP are solid in unity ,” Berganding Bahu We will give you more in the days to come.

The Blame Game will start from Najib down and we did warn Najib about it as he has the people to read audie61…….

audie61 would like to congratulate the new MP for P212 Sibu Wong Ho Leng…………

The Final Results:-

Votes cast – 37,919 votes
Turnout – 70%
Spoilt votes – 395 votes
Majority – 398 votes
Postal votes – 2,429 votes

P212″Your Votes Count”

 Goodnight thanks everyone for followng audie61

WONG HO LENG wins by 398 votes official  SIBU – DAP wins with 18845, BN 18447, Ind 232, Majority is 398

Latest 10.50pm :- SIBU – Wong Ho Leng and Lim Guan Eng arrives at counting centre

No wonder they say Sarawakians are so laid back now only they realise about the Tsunami 2008. Have they woken up says a political watcher ..??

sms received so sarcastic,” Aiyoh! Conduct election in one constituency so hard. How to conduct nationwide general election leh

Another caller told audie61″#Sibu #P212 it looks like aft nearly 2 hrs, SPR managd 2 reduce DAP postal votes by 17. Proceedg now 2 Civic centre 4 official anncmt

Official announcement at 12midnight when everyone asleep says an irate caller to audie61

Seems the whole world  knows this is an information technological world and news travels faster than the speed of light..Hmm says a voter

So many BN supporters surprised.DAP won Kah..?? Why because they were all busy doing their own and not helping SUPP

Something wrong here someone tweet audie61: Bernama earlier reported there are 2,537 postal votes, but now Mkini reports there are 2,572 postal ballots..HUH….!!!

Tweet from Lim Kit Siang 

#P212 Ppl of #SibuSwakMsia n world watching whether there is going 2b Election Commission scandal bcos Najib does not want 2admit defeat

OFFICIAL BN 16124 IND 196 DAP 18775 majority 2651 for DAP. Postal votes not tallied.

The counting of postal votes has ended. However, DAP scrutineers are unable to get Form 15 – the official tally signed by the returning officer.

It is understood that BN has won 2,300 out of a total 2,571 postal votes. This will translate into a DAP victory with a margin of 300 votes.

DAP candidate Wong Ho Leng refuses to claim victory as yet.

“I don’t want comment. Please wait for the official announcement,”

Tweet from Lim Kit Siang 

Twitter
limkitsiang: 

#P212 Is there any attempt 2steal #Sibu byelection from great ppl of Sibu after a great campaign involving PM DPM n Swak CM?

Illogical says a politcal watcher 2571 postal votes cannot even be counted till now. So backwards while 32000 votes already done..Please accept defeat like a MAN

At the close of polls at 5pm today, only 32,742 registered voters bothered to cast their ballots, or 59.86%, said the EC. Now…But if you add the figures of the unofficial tally DAP 18570, BN 15980 and independent 201, you get 34751 – which is more than the votes cast of 32742!

Now, that’s a big Hmmmm..

After claiming victory DAP leaders now holding their breath with postal votes untallied and turnout expected to be revised upwards

RECOUNT IT SEEMS…..The final result may not be announced anytime soon. The 2,571 postal votes are still being counted. All DAP leaders leave the party’s operations room in Sibu for Wisma Sanyan where the postal votes are being tallied.

DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang wants to know what is holding up the Election Commission from announcing the by-election result.

Goodnite everybody have a nice day tomorrow…from all of us at audie61.

9.00PM PKR Wanita Sarawak called audie61 and confirmed DAP/PR has won P212. Congrats to the new MP for Sibu 212

857pm :- DPM has postponed schedule press conference to tomorrow. DAP leaders arriving at counting centre

855pm No official results yet

851 pm Tweet from counting centre UNOFFICIAL: DAP WON but majority between 100-300. Re-count possible. BN leaders left tallying centre but DAP CEC has yet to declare victory. However individual DAP leaders like Jeff Ooi and Anthony Loke admitted victory and Deputy Education Minister Wee Ka Siong admitted defeat.

845pm Lim Kit Siang Tweet( Told BN leaders left counting centre virtually admitting defeat. Some time b4 off results are known awaiting postal ballot.

8,30 pm DAP members already celebrating at the DAP operations centre.

8.25p Latest DAP /PR set to win

Latest now DAP 18211 votes  get so far!!!!

Latest 8.15pm Total votes DAP 17120 (2008-15903 )majority 3279 95.49% counted!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Latest 8.05pm  DAP has increased its lead to 3,130 votes. About 93.9% of votes have been counted so far.

DAP – 16,786
BN – 13,656
Ind – 136

Majority – 3,130

Latest 8.00pm Wait for Official counting.

7.52pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has increased its lead to 3,048 votes. About 92.6% of votes have been counted so far.

DAP – 16,538
BN – 13,490
Ind – 136

Majority – 3,048

Latest 7.58 pm unconfirmed source  DAP wins P212 by 281 votes

Latest 750Pm See Chee How PKR Sarawak Information chief is already saying DAP/PR will win .

Latest 745pm DAP 16178 BN 13156 majority 3022 with 94 of 110 boxes counted

Latest 7.41pm

DAP – 15,981
BN – 13,061
Ind – 134

Majority – 2,920

7.40 pm Nail Biting finish Malay/Melanau and postal votes not yet counted

7.33 pm  2,817 votes w 87.9% counted DAP – 15,655
BN – 12,838
Ind – 132

Majority – 2,817 { 90 of 110 boxes counted

7.30 pm Postal votes are tallying now

7.25pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has again increased its lead to 2,236 votes. About 81% of votes have been counted so far. DAP – 14,283 BN – 12,047 Ind – 129 Majority – 2,236

715pm 78/110 SALURAN
DAP: 12966
BN 11389
MAJORITY: 1577

7.10 pm  66 of 110 boxes counted DAP 10773 BN 9229 Majority 1544

7.00pm There will be a swing to BN says a political watcher.just watch

6,56 pm Excluding Postal votes (2537)

6.55pm DAP leading by 1544 votes

6.50pm: Rain starts to fall in Sibu as ballot boxes continue to stream into the counting centre at the main tally centre in Dewan Suarah

6.46pm: The Election Commission announces that the voter turnout for today’s by-election is 59.86% or 32,742 voters. The total in postal votes are 2,537.

6.42pm: According to the latest unofficial tally, DAP has further increased its lead to 914. So far, 59 out of 110 polling streams, or about 54% of votes, have been counted.

DAP – 9,188
BN – 8,274
Ind – 89

Majority – 914

According to the latest unofficial tally in the polling stations which have closed early, BN has increased its lead to 1,930 votes. So far, 16 out of 110 polling streams have been counted.

BN – 2,959
DAP – 1,029
Ind – 18

Majority – 1,930

Of the 16 polling streams counted, at least 10 are from Iban areas where DAP is expected to lose

Latest 5PM- Polls closed

Latest 1.50 PM- PKR Sarawak Info chief from polling site. The voters are all so friendly and they is no way both BN/PR can tell that the voters are voting for WHO. This is like a Silent Movie Show. Even BN are as puzzled by the Voters from Sungei Bidut and Teku areas as they are friendly to all sides. There is no harassment or shouting match between both sets of supporters.

Church services have concluded and increase in voters in Urban areas now, Traffic Jam in Sibu

 Latest 1.30 PM– BN very confident of winning dayak areas. PKR Wanita Sarawak exco remarked that they have made very significant inroads in the last few days. Will be able to garner 30-35% of Iban voters an increase of at least 15%. She chuckled when some one said “DAP according to the Iban wanita was termed ‘Communists” Now they are awakened that its an alternate party to BN. Hmmm. talk about not being informed..

Today 16th May 2010 is polling day for P212 Sibu to choose the candidate who will be the Member of Parliament to represent Sibu Constituency in Parliament. Its your choice and its up to the individual to cast their votes as all political parites have made their intentions known and delivered their messages.

So Voters your votes count and come out to vote in the morning as the Meteorological Department forecast isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.  Polling ends at 5 pm and the official result is expected to be around 9pm.

Click Here to follow sites:-

P212 Sibu “Could it be False Alarm..??”

Frantic phone calls are being made to all BN supporters and sympathisers that this by election DAP/PR is gaining momentum. ,”We need a Final push and everyone is needed.”Even the PM is making a third appearance into Sibu and he will be at Rajang Park tonight for a Final Push for Votes.  

Even the sms which audie61 received states,”Pls get all your frens and relatives to Vote for BN.We really need to boost up last round of efforts to win d support of d voters.” TQVM for your kind support. What could have spark this reaction…? A political analysts said its this report from Malaysiakini which has really up the ante for BN…

DAP to win Sibu by 500 votes:-

Having not been in Malaysia for the past three years, I was surprised by some of the physical changes back home, including the rise of new commercial and residential developments in my home town, or should I say, home city, of Petaling Jaya.

Even the DAP headquarters in Section 20 in Paramount Gardens has gone though a significant face-lift. The few times I drove past this building this week, however, revealed a surprising lack of activity in the HQ of what is now the largest opposition party in the country and a party which holds more parliamentary and state seats than MCA, MIC and Gerakan combined.

It suddenly dawned on me that the whole administrative and leadership structure of DAP in Peninsular Malaysia had temporarily relocated to Sibu.

The DAP has been itching for an electoral fight since March 2008. Both PAS and PKR have had numerous opportunities to mobilise their electoral machinery for their respective candidates in the previous 10 post-March 2008 by-elections. Sibu finally presents an opportunity for DAP to do the same for its own candidate.

That this contest would be a close one was never in doubt. The BN won this seat in 2008 with only 53% of the popular vote and against a divided opposition. Even in the midst of the Pak Lah ‘tsunami’ in 2004, the SUPP won this seat with only 54% of the popular vote.

azlanMost of the analysis, reports and betting odds are in favour of the BN at the time of writing. However, the betting odds seemed to have narrowed significantly over the past week, down to approximately 1,000 votes in BN’s favour. The odds will probably narrow further come polling day tomorrow.

I have been wrong in my analysis in predicting the eventual winner (Hulu Selangor) and the margin of victory (Kuala Terengganu) in previous by-elections.

A good friend of mine observed that my predictions tend to be a little over-exuberant, shall we say, usually in favour of the Pakatan Rakyat candidate. This is not based on any inherent bias (though I have my own personal political preferences) but rather on the methodological framework and analytical assumptions I use in predicting by-election outcomes.

With this in mind, I will once again stick my neck out and predict a narrow DAP victory by less than 500 votes.

What is my prediction based on?

Decline in Chinese support

Firstly, I expect a decline in the Chinese support for SUPP. This should not be a surprise to anyone. Without an expected decline in the Chinese support, there is no possibility of a DAP victory in this 67% Chinese-majority seat.

azlanThe crucial question here is the extent of the decline in Chinese support. In the 2008 general election, the estimated level of Chinese support for SUPP was 37%. A conservative estimate would put the decline at less than 5%. A more aggressive estimate would give the DAP as much as 70% of the Chinese vote.

My prediction is based on the assumption that DAP would get somewhere between 68% to 69% of the Chinese vote. In a close race such as this, where every vote counts, a 1% swing in the Chinese vote translates roughly into a difference of 500 votes in the overall majority.

There are a number of factors which can account for the expected fall in the Chinese support for BN. Unhappiness with the incumbent chief minister and the uncertainty of the impending leadership transition, infighting within SUPP, a number of campaign issues which can have local salience, such as the ‘Allah’ issue, are some of the more prominent factors.

The crucial point here is that there are a number of factors which can, and probably will, decrease the level of Chinese support for SUPP, and there are few campaign issues which can be used by the Sarawak-based party to counter attack DAP. Hence, the only direction the Chinese support for SUPP can take is down.

NONEBut unless the swing in the Chinese vote is significant – by 7% or more – DAP still needs to swing some of the Iban vote in its favour.

The level of Iban support for SUPP was approximately 80% in 2008. A 1% swing in the Iban vote will result in a change of 100 votes in the overall majority. If some of the salient local issues, including the ‘Allah’ issue – which is much more likely to affect the practice of Christianity among the BM-speaking Iban compared to the Chinese- and English-speaking Foochow – have traction, it would not be surprising to see a slight decrease in the Iban vote.

My prediction is based on a swing of 5% in the Iban vote against SUPP, and in my opinion, it’s a rather conservative estimate.

I assume that there is no change in the level of Melanau/Malay support for SUPP, which will remain at a high level of approximately 85% – the 2008 level. It would be naive to think that PAS would be able to swing any Melanau/Malay support to the DAP candidate given that it has almost no grassroots presence in Sarawak.

Finally, I also assume that BN will have a dominant 2,500-vote majority in the postal votes, which was what it was in 2008. This majority may shift slightly because the latest electoral roll shows that there are slightly over 2,500 postal voters in the constituency.

DAP leaders seem hungrier

Apart from the uncertainty associated with predicting changes in voting patterns by ethnic group, there are also the challenges associated with predicting the impact of some of the ‘immeasurables’, notably vote-buying and postal-vote tampering.

My prediction has already factored in vote-buying in that I assume that the same level of vote-buying that had been practiced would continue to have the same effect. Of course, in a by-election, the stakes are much higher which means that more money and incentives can be thrown in at the eleventh hour to swing the necessary number of votes to win the by-election in question. This was one of the contributory factors in the BN victory in Hulu Selangor.

NONEHowever, given the already high levels of support for SUPP among the Iban and the Malay/Melanau areas, my belief is that the impact of additional resources spent on vote-buying will not have any additional effect on the voting behaviour of these groups of voters.

In other words, those who could not be ‘bought off’ before, for whatever reason, in the previous elections, would not be able to be ‘bought off’ this time around, even with greater monetary incentives.

In terms of postal-vote tampering, since polling agents from the respective parties are not allowed to observe the voting process, the usual practices associated with ‘pressuring’ postal voters, mostly in the army in the case of Sibu, may be ramped up. But again, given the already high percentage of SUPP support among postal voters (94% in 2008), I do not anticipate a significant increase in the majority gained by SUPP from the postal votes.

In addition, I do not take into account of the small but possibly significant factor of the independent candidate, Nawawi Haron, who may take a handful of crucial Malay/Melanau votes away from BN.

I end with where I began – back at the DAP headquarters.

NONEMy sense is that the DAP leaders are desperate to win this by-election. All internal feuds, which were not as serious as the ones faced by PKR in Hulu Selangor, have been put aside for this by-election.

It seems that the Peninsular-based DAP leaders have allowed Sarawak DAP to ‘run the show’ as it were and provide the necessary support in other ways. This was not an advantage enjoyed by DAP in 2008.

The DAP leaders seem hungrier and more motivated. They know that every vote counts and are willing to work as hard as possible to turn out every single pro-opposition voter. I think it is this motivation that will provide the final edge for DAP to emerge victorious with a paper-thin margin of less than 500 votes.

 

ONG KIAN MING holds a PhD in political science from Duke University.

 

P212″ Forget SNAP,PRS Where is PCM..??”

A political watcher emailed audie61,” Seems the headlines in todays newspapers are “SNAP in Marudi,PRS in Bintulu.” But amazingly the question on everyones lips are ,”Where is the much hyped Parti Cinta Malaysia(PCM)?? Didn’t they say they will stand in 40 seats in the next Sarawak State elections.? Incidently as per an internet portal this was mentioned,” When the prime minister visited Sarawak, PCM leaders were at the Kuching Airport to greet him. Are the PCM leaders going all out to secure the Dayak votes for  the BN..?

It seems that SNAP are now having second thoughts or they could have been harassed to submission and its wiser to stay away from the HOTLY CONTESTED P212 By election?

PRS is also not spared  and eventhough the leaders have been seen campaigning the TDC in Bintulu should have been postponed to a later date (1 week or 2 weeks later). Maybe James unknowingly uttered the wrong words especially on SUPP overlooking the Bumiputeras. 

However the agenda could be BN wants its component party PRS  to hold its TDC at this moment in time with the DUN Meeting starting on 17th of May it could signal the last DUN before the impending Sarawak State elections. 

CM looks all ready to call for a SNAP ELECTIONS and if the SUPP/BN P212 is an overwhelming victory and a clear majority/mandate he will just have the INSPIRATION.  Afterall he is the guests of honour and he will officiate the TDC in Bintulu on May15th 2010.

PCM might just be following the by elections on the sidelines and trying to pick up what issues are relevant to be used for the State elections. Or have they been asked and instructed to keep a low profile..?

PRS has the agenda , SNAP according to the headline”desert” but PCM remains anonymous. Could we see them in the next State elections…???

P212 “Opposition Closing In..??”

The ground zero effect unlike Hulu Selangor P94  where the swing for BN is imminent is not being felt in Sibu. There are a number of factors which if not addressed will see a drop of votes for the BN. DAP with Lim Kit Siang at the helm playing psychological warfare/propaganda has managed  to overturn an overwhelming BN unassailable lead to a close 51/49 and there are still two days left.

The SYNDICATED BOOKIES has suddenly saw an upswing of punters who had earlier placed their bets on BN winning over 2000 votes retracting and replacing it with bets for DAP Wong Ho Leng. Are there reasons for this..? One would have thought that the Chinese voters must be enticed by the development funds/projects being “Bombarded left right and centre” 

The main factors remains the Lau and Tiong rivalry,the Teng/Soon non-appearance,the 120 dayak longhouses votes,unavailablity of job opprtunities in Sibu,the Bible and “Allah”issue { the 50% Christian voters have not forgotten especially the confiscation of some 15,000 Kitab Injib, the Malay translation of the Bible,}

Point 1:- Lau and  Tiong rivalry has been going on for ages. One aide close to Tiongs camp said that when the Lau Juniors name was mentioned there was not even a consideration for the other name submitted by Tiong. It is speculated now that Tiongs camp will not push/force his workers to vote. A swing for DAP..?

Point 2:– The non appearance of Dr.Soon and David Teng and his group will see some of his followers protesting in the balloting trend. There might be an upsurge of spoilt votes/not bothering to turn up and this might somewhat reduce the majority of votes for the BN camp.

Point 3:- The NCR land issue remains a very sensitive and sore point for the ruling Sarawak BN. According to a source the CM Sarawak visited a longhouse where there was supposed to be a large crowd but it was disappointing. Is there a swing for the dayaks and are the opposition making gains in the dayak areas..??

Point 4:- The movement and brain drain and the job oppotunities available in Sibu has somewhat turned the seemingly satisfied Chinese voters to look more at their own backyard. Could a vote for the Opposition be justifiable and push the message through to the leaders in Sarawak BN for more economic activites to Sibu.??

Point 5:- Religious freedom and tolerance is and will be a main capture for votes from all the constituents in Sarawak and for that matter in Sibu. Christians make up 50% of the 54695 eligible voters in Sibu and a slight shift will be enough to pull ahead for the candidate in question. BN/Pakatan have made their intentions known by meeting up with christian religious groups and laypersons to explain their stand.

Did the PM’s “three -minute lightning visit” to the Tua Pek Kong procession muster any votes for the BN candidate a political watcher asked..?? This is but a small factor to consider with the reversal of punters hurrying to throw their weight behind the DAP Wong Ho Leng. BN needs to reassess their political strategies as the Pakatan group is slowly and surely closing in.  

Of course all the political parties will have their own assessment of their ground work/campaigning and an overzealous Minister even predicted  a 70% BN win over DAP. Of course with all the development funds being bombarded one would give him/her the benefit of doubt but GROUND ZERO is what matters.

The bookies can’t go too far wrong and their livelihood hangs on making a huge winning to boost their accounts  just in time for the Gawai Dayak Holidays. 48 hours closing and pushing it close to the edge and the Chinese will know what benefits them now rather than later……….

P212″ Whole Putrajaya in Sibu”

A voter from Sibu remarked cheekily,”Now Sibu looks like the Federal Capital.” Just drop a name who is who..? They are all camped in Sibu and they even have time playing squash and also checking the prices in Sibu wet market. Even the Pakatan State leaders are also seen campaigning for votes. Wah! Sibu so famous now and the Capital of Malaysia till the 16th is Sibu. “Welcome to Sibu Federal Capital of Malaysia ….Good huh!

A political analysts picked this statement up from the CM of Sarawak,” Taib also described the on-going campaigning for the Sibu by-election as very “panas” (intense).”We seldom experience this kind of situation. We are used to more localised issues.

Isn’t there a saying he remark,”Too many Cooks spoil the soup..? In this context there is no more daily briefings on what is and what is not to say but ONLY TO ENSURE  that the votes are in the bag fro the BN. Of course the pressure boils and the main issue seems to be the Bible issue for East Malaysia.

A DAP member said,”Can we import Bible with Allah into Sarawak..?” This issue remains hot on the heels of BN and they need to find ways to appease the 50% voters who are of Christian denomination in Sibu. All other bread and butter issues are of secondary importance in this election and the Tua Pek Kong Procession will not have too much bearing on the outcome. However the postponement of the May13th scheduled Rally is a plus point for the BN government.

The importance of internet and smses in this predominantly urban Sibu by election area  is of utmost importance . Take this twitter message sent by Hannah Yeoh,”Prayer & worship important to Christians, I use words to talk to God. I don’t want the government to regulate my conversation with God.” while you compare what Information Communciation and Culture Minister Rais Yatim had to say ,”They need to achieve 50% broadband penetration by years end and they need to distribute PCs and notebooks to the students who need them .”

Is this still relevant and its like cutting ribbons for a shop opening or jut to kickstart a development project.? The urban Sibu people want to know how policies are to be amended especially on relevant issues not how 50 % broadband penetration but “Allah”Bible” Scholarships”Subsidies etc.etc. BN needs to revamp. 

No wonder the CM said its “panas” and it seems in the bordersless world the Opposition members knows how to use the savvy technology of twittering,blogging,smses and facebook to their advantage while most of BN YBs are only dishing development funds while not intellectually having the right political discourse with the internet savvy voters.

This is and will be a major headache for the BN in the coming GE and State elections and if their YBs and Mps are still leaving in an egoistic world { bent on proving (to themselves) that they are better than those who have elected them }   their TIME will be up.

However having said that Sibu will still be in the hands of the right man for the job as the voters will have no qualms of taking the person out at the slightest hint of underperformance. When the whole of PutraJaya is in Sibu will you bet your lasts dollar to the opposition.

The democratic voting process is in the hands of the People and they will know what to do when they mark X on May16th for the P212 Sibu MP.  Have you decided or you need to listen to more ceramahs…………………