“DAP Chong Running Scared..?”

Happy New Year 2011 to Audie61 fans …

Yes, the year of the 10^th Sarawak state election has arrived.

But the year of the Tiger has about a month to go … but I will not turn into a rabbit … Grrr

Let us start off with our favorite topic:  Chong Chieng Jen, popularly known as Ah Jen

Who is afraid of Ah Jen?

It seems that many people are.

He has kept them guessing as to which constituency he will be standing in.

We hear rumours of him standing in Batu Lintang or Padungan and yes, Batu Kawa too.

 You have got to hand it to Ah Jen. He likes to keep them guessing. Because it is advantageous for him to do so.

His nemesis, SUPP has already confirmed all candidates in Kuching except for SUPP Padungan Branch where a recalcitrant Lily is giving George a migraine.

We know it will be Hua Tong for Batu Lintang, Kui Hian for Pending and Alfred for Kota Sentosa.

But we do not know where Ah Jen will stand. It is most natural for him to defend Kota Sentosa. But will he?

Poor Alfred does not know if he will face Ah Jen in Kota Sentosa again.  While he may like to ask Ah Jen to debate what he has done for Kota Sentosa, Ah Jen will not fall for that game. As an opposition YB, Ah Jen has the luxury of barking and claiming that the government should be doing the work.

But recently Ah Jen has been quiet and not seen in his constituency more than he should be. An insider has told me that Ah Jen has practically decided to stand in another seat. Has he been quietly packing his bags?

We also learnt that Ah Phoi and his SUPP Batu Kawa boys trembled at news that Ah Jen had cast his eyes towards Batu Kawa.

Stay cool, Ah Phoi. Have a little more faith in yourself. 

Ah Phoi had won his seat in the last election with a majority of over 4000 votes but such is the reputation of Ah Jen that just a whisper that he may be standing there is enough to scare the daylights out of SUPP Batu Kawa.  

In case you are wondering why they are scared in SUPP Batu Kawaland, the story goes like this … and it is probably a DAP-planted story.  Ah Jen the giant-slayer had during the last election killed off minister Alfred (well, assistant minister, to be more precise). We all know Ah Jen loves to eat ministers for breakfast and so this time around he will boldly go into Batu Kawa where minister Ah Phoi is ripe for the kill. You see the logic?  Fear not, SUPP Batu Kawa boys, it ain’t going to happen.

Ah Jen may be a lot of things such as being the idol of the Chinese youths and the scion of the Chong political family but my source is convinced that he is scared of losing in Sentosa. That is the REAL reason he is running away from Sentosa.

There is also no glory in defending Sentosa. Of course if he wins again in Sentosa, he will have finished off Alfred for good. But the stakes are too high. If he loses in Sentosa, it will be just as devastating a blow.

So, Ah Jen looks around for a safe seat. He will love to fight SUPP in Padungan. That will be his first choice.  

How can a Chinese majority area be represented by PKR? Right….??   

Yes. Even within the opposition front they fight over seats. If only a swap with PKR can be arranged for DAP to go for Padungan, Ah Jen figures he will win easily.

But a more likely move will be for Ah Jen to stand in Batu Lintang. It is currently a DAP-held seat. Ah Jen will love to remove fellow DAP member and incumbent Voon Lee Shan. Although Voon has a band of loyal supporters in Batu Lintang, Pending and within DAP, Ah Jen will decide the list of candidates.

From past events, we can predict that Voon will not be fielded to defend his Batu Lintang seat. If Ah Jen chooses that seat for himself, where will the DAP field Voon?  They may not even field him.

By Ah Jen and the DAP selection committee’s reckoning, if the DAP has a fighting chance in Sentosa, they may put up Kin Wei, a fellow lawyer in the family legal firm, for Sentosa.

If Kin Wei loses in Sentosa, they can always spin it as a new face losing to a SUPP strongman.

Or if in their assessment Sentosa has become a grey area for the DAP, they may send the “stepson” Voon to face Alfred.  

Will the coming Battle for Sentosa be between two big giants or will Ah Jen choose the easy way out.

 

 WE WILL KNOW IN GOOD TIME WOULDN’T WE……

N12 Kota Sentosa: “Yap versus Voon…?”

It is now official. SUPP president Dr George Chan has all but confirmed that Alfred Yap Chin Loi will be the party’s candidate for the Kota Sentosa seat in next state election. Speaking at the SUPP Kota Sentosa Branch anniversary dinner last week, Dr Chan was full of praise for Yap, saying that he had worked tirelessly after losing the contest to DAP’s Chong Chieng Jen.

The interesting question is:  Who will Yap face in Sentosa?

It will be a classic clash of the titans if Kota Sentosa sees a Yap-Chong re-match.

But this tiger is willing to bet that the incumbent Chong will move to fight SUPP in another constituency. After speaking to senior party leaders on both sides, I am convinced that Chong is searching for a safer seat.

Much has changed since 2006. It was then the “political tsunami” that had vanquished SUPP heavyweights and swept in many DAP unknowns.

Four years later, the conventional wisdom still predicts a greater SUPP loss at the looming state polls. But forget conventional wisdom.  In the next Sentosa match, the SUPP candidate and DAP incumbent both agree on one thing: they do not like to face each other.

Chong will prefer not to fight Yap.

It is a much stronger Alfred Yap whom he had beaten by 531 votes in 2006. Whereas Yap started the campaign for the next election the next day after he lost, Chong cannot claim to have done much for the constituency. Many of Yap’s supporters are residents of the new constituency and who knows how many have registered to vote in Sentosa.

Yap will prefer not to fight Chong.

Once bitten, twice shy, they say and I think Yap is hoping that Chong will run away to a safer seat.

How now? Both candidates are afraid of each other. Interesting, isn’t it?

Given this scenario, with some intelligent guesswork plus a little bit of feline mischief, we can anticipate the following:

1. Yap and Chong may be or may have already negotiated with each other quietly through a third party. The end result is Chong not standing in Sentosa. (A little bird is saying that a member of the PRS is involved?)
2. Chong may exert his influence to kill two birds with one stone. Are you thinking what I am thinking?   Yes, yes. Chong will find it more than delicious to push Voon Lee Shan to Kota Sentosa. Voon will, as the Chinese like to say, (and I hate to paraphrase because it sounds like bad English): “Die standing”
3. As Chong surveys the possible battlefields beyond Sentosa, he will no doubt turn his eyes to Padungan and Batu Lintang. And again if you listen to the proverbial conventional wisdom, these are sure-lose seats for the SUPP.

 

If Chong chooses to stand in Batu Lintang, it will be sweet victory if he can beat likely candidate Sih Hua Tong. The only problem will be Voon’s supporters. They may not take too kindly to Chong if he kicks Voon to face certain death in Sentosa.

Padungan will be also on Chong’s radar if unfolding events favor him. If Chong wins the lawsuit against Padungan incumbent PKR’s Ng Kim Ho and if Ng is made a bankrupt, the DAP will lay claim to Padungan. We all know that the Chinese majority Padungan seat has always been claimed by the DAP.                                    

Not yet convinced that Chong will run away from Sentosa? 

OK. Do the following:

Read the above point 1 again and ask yourself these questions:

Why is Chong keeping silent about defending Sentosa? 

Why have Chong and Yap not attack each other? Chong has been on attack mode but has not let loose on Yap even after Dr Chan has confirmed Yap will be SUPP’s preferred candidate.

Does Chong already know he will not be defending Kota Sentosa?

Stay tuned. More will be revealed. For now, digest the above.   Grrr

Please Click Related Posts from Tiger:-https://audie61.wordpress.com/2010/10/26/where-will-the-%e2%80%98lim-guan-eng-of-sarawak%e2%80%99-stand/