SWC or Danger “Sure Win Candidate or Grey/Black”

winnableHas the GE13 elections fever hit the state of Sarawak? Generally, we would be expecting much more but its been eerily calm. It’s the calm before the storm, and that storm is how the people in the whole country would vote. Lim Kit Siang a seasoned politician smells a kill. He knows politics is about propaganda plus perception and now he is telling Malaysians,’7 States will fall to Pakatan”

A BN observer said, “Sure Win Meh? Why isn’t he as confident as saying Sarawak and Sabah will lose 30 seats together for Pakatan to form the next Federal Government?

 Alas, he too knows that BN in East Malaysia have kept our eyes open and ears on the ground listening to all the movements. Recently, the deputy minister in PM’s office Ahmad Maslan said that the Sarawak atmosphere is very devoid of flags,posters and buntings eventhough its the 13th hour already. Sarawak legislators and political parties are doing their homework and in fact can safely say BN will have at least 25 in the bag out of 31 seats. Does he need to wipe the sweat behind his neck?

We can be highly critical of the way certain component parties carry out their fight in facing the GE13. They are too fears that some of the MPs after the results are known in the 4 component parties holds high probabililty of ‘short selling themselves’ to the highest bidder if the results are too close for comfort. We shall see wouldn’t we? In politics nothing is a sure thing nor are all ‘promises” kept in totality.

Many observers are pinpointing now to the Global Witness video footage which many “unkind” words were uttered and it will tip some votes over to the opposition. Latest ground reports are that thousand of discs are being burnt and translated into Iban and making their way to longhouses and riverine settlements.

Under this circumstances all the reports on the ground needs to be addressed and looked over again cautiously to pick the mosts ‘winnable” candidate. However the Ugly Truth will be too hurtful for many to swallow.

We start of with SUPP a multi racial party but dominated heavily with membership from the chinese community and 6 out of 7 SUPP Parliamentary areas are in the urban areas. We are of course not experts but we can be very critical as we have worked with their members.

Oh No..!! I see arrows and daggers coming my way. Forgive my humble analysis but its going to hurt some people nevertheless.

One would also ask did we take into considerations the voting strengths,the voters gender breakdown and get the feedbacks from the AJKs and groundzero.? Read on and tell us where we might just miss out..  

SW-“sure win” white or DANGER -“grey/black”

Having said the above, SUPP is now paying the price for unsolved infighting which has resulted in the Chinese voting community abandoning them. It’s not that DAP or PKR have suddenly an upsurged of membership but the legislators and leaders in the party have fought so bitterly amongst themselves that they have forgotten that they are actually supposedly to fight for the people.  

7 seats for SUPP

1.Kuching:- Tan Kai it seems is a very good candidate but unfortunately he has also been caught up in the turf war between group A led by Peter Chin and Group B led by Wong Soon Koh. He needs a ‘miracle” to win Bandar Kuching but he still needs to soldier on as someone dreamt he won by 6 votes to pull off a mosts unlikely win. Black)

2. Stampin:– Have they resolved Deputy Minister Yong Khoon Seng to hold on to the fort and stop him from retiring? DAP Chong seems favourite to go for another scalping but word on the ground is that former DAP ADUN Voon Lee Shans man are seeking revenge. Voon was unceremoniosly left out of the last state elections eventhough he has contributed much to DAP. They have not forgotten and SUPP will  do well to retain this seat. Many say though this urban seat will fall but its the mathematics that counts here. (Grey)

3. Serian:– Deputy Minister and Deputy President Richard Riot will not have much trouble going against the DAP candidate here. The Bidayuhs know that Richard have kept his promises and looked well after his own people and if SUPP ever thinks of a “real revamp” {thinking of a Bidayuh President..hmmm} he might just be the person to bring SUPP back to its golden and glorious years. Will be a Shocker if Richard is defeated here.(white)

4.Sarikei:- MP Ding would have won this time round but unfortunately the infighting in the Sarikei area between Wong Soon Koh’s men and David Teng’s men have shifted significantly towards the DAP. The sacking of Stephan Wong has had an adverse effect. He though has actively campaigned for the seat when the party had long ago announced that incumbent Ding would defend it in the general election. Tough for Ding as he faces enemies also from within (Grey/Black)

5.Lanang:- MP Tiong with all his influence and in any other GE he would easily pull through. He has even taken DAP to task and this are his words”You just look around – what have they done for the people? Nothing … except providing lip service and making more empty promises,”He will face off with Alice Lau who losts to Wong Soon Koh  at Bawang Assan State seat. In 2008 Tiong polled 19,476 votes against DAP Wong Kee Woan’s 14,612 votes. This time round is his 5th term as candidate and it will be his toughest yet (Grey/Black)

6.Sibu:- In the by election DAP Wong Ho Leng won this seat. Wong would not defend this seat due to brain tumour and recoving from chemoteraphy. Temonggong Vincent Lau would bepitted against a new DAP candidate in Oscar Ling. Chances of wrestling the seat back from DAP looks very good as PBB ADUN Annuar has been working extra hard to win over the losts bumiputra votes during the byelections. They have both been seen working hand in hand and SUPP’s chances looks brighter eventhough this 95% urban seat. (Grey) 

7. Miri:- Peter Chin will not seek another term and he has given the seat to his long time Political Secretary Sebastian Ting. Both SUPP and DAP are caught with their own infighting between their members and DAP has sacked 6 of its Senadin members as recent as 11th of March 2013 for insubordination and repeatedly tarnishing the party’s image. Sebastian is a hardworking and able candidate but the ‘winnable’ factor does point to Hii King Chiong a philantropists who according to sources in his CNY open house attracted more than 30000 people from all walks of life. Tough call for SUPP on this seat and Dr.Teo of PKR is waiting to pounce on SUPP’s uncertainties. (Grey)

Overall, SUPP will do well to win 4 out of 7 seats as the Chinese areas still are going all out to punish the party as their leaders have been seen to be looking after themeselves. The opposition are capitalising on the weaknesses of the SUPP party to win the seats and the infighting is not only amongst the top but it has reached also the grassroots. If the Team A and Team B infighting is put in the backburner the party SUPP still have a fighting chance against DAP. If not,you know the answer….!

4 seats for SPDP

8. Mas Gading:- The tussle of the G5 candidate in Tiki Lafe and SPDP Anthony Nogeh of standing as BN candidate will open the chance for PKR Candidate Willy Tumek or DAP Mordi Bimol to stand a fighting chance to win this seat. It will not be easy and eventhough many occasions there are 4 or 5 cornered fights BN still comes on top in this seat. PBB and SUPP have openly come out in support of Nogeh’s candidacy but Tiki remains hopeful. A last minute replacement for a “winnable” and acceptable candidate might just be the answer. A highly respected civil servant might be BN’s choice to esnure this seat is retained by BN/SPDP ( White/Grey)

9. Saratok:- Will the President of the party William Mawan be the chosen candidate? There are too many names being thrown around to replace incumbent Jelaing Mersat where many voters are waiting to throw him out if the party does not replace him with a credible candidate. Ali Biju the PKR candidate stands waiting to wrestle this Parliamentary seat from SPDP.

Even the BN component parties in Krian are keeping a close watch on the development of a “winnable” candidate. They will throw their weight behind when their party warlords sounds the bugle.(Grey/Black)

10. Bintulu:- It will not be a stroll in the park for MP Tiong King Sing and also Deputy President of SPDP. It does look an easy win but he has looked after his constituency well and many would not mark their votes against him. However this being a Chinese Majority area Tiong still needs to put in the extra effort to secure the win.(White)

11. Baram:- Incumbent Deputy Minister Jacob Sagan will need to fight the enemy within BN who has been hellbent to topple any candidate put up by the party. There have been “recordings of speeches” and its not so much the dam factor which is affecting his candidacy. Reports are also surfacing that the name of Anyi Ngau would be an acceptable face in Baram but Jacob has been given the blessings from the party.

 It’s a tough fight nevertheless but Jacob would win in the final tally. Will BN change their minds to replace Jacob in the last minute? one hopes not as Ba’Kelalan state seat under the SPDP allocation fell due to last minute replacement.

SPDP 4 seats are touch and go and only 1 now is heavily favoured to be retained without much fanfare. A lot of ground work and propaganda works needs to be carried out to ensure the other 3 seats remains with BN. The G5 factor will be a major hurdle for BN to solve and decisions need to be work out and carried out for the party to win the 4 seats without interference from the sacked SPDP members and their followers. A highly unpopular call must be made by the BN hierarchy.

6 seats for PRS

12. Sri Aman:- Masir Kujat the incumbent MP is under SEVERE ATTACK by his 2008 proposer businessman and former ADUN Donald Lawan. He will be challenged by DAP probable candidate Leon Jimmy Donald whose father was a former MP. SWP who made the call of going for all 6 seats under PRS have been dealt a blow by the resignation of its supreme council member and tipped to be candidate Andy Lawrence. (Grey)  

13.Lubok Antu:-William Nyallau will come up against SWP President Larry Sng who was a former Assistant Minister. Many expects Larry to pull through without much problems but the resigantions of 3 of its younger supreme council members is proving to throw spanner in the parties works. Ground forces say Nyallau will be ably assisted by the two(2) ADUNS and most of PRS heavyweights who would want to deal a black mark to Larry’s political career. SWP has even come up with a statement that ‘a broker” has been moving around to “buy” key party members and supporters. This will be a bitterly fought seat between not only PRS against SWP but also PKR Nicholas Bawin.(Grey/Black)

Nicholas has on numerous occasions questioned SWP,” I don’t know what they are fighting for. They said they fight against PRS, but at the same time declaring themselves as Barisan friendly. Politics must be taken seriously because it determines the future of the state and the country,” he said. (Grey/Black)

14.Julau:- Joseph Salang will square off with former friend turned enemy in Wong Judat who quit SPDP to stand as a SWP candidate. BN will face a tough fight but it is highly unlikely that Salang would be unseated from this seat. PKR will field a candidate but its candidate would not be much threat to Salang too. (Grey)

15. Kanowit:- Aaron Dagang was rumoured to be dropped and his candidacy would be taken over by Joseph Jawa. The incumbent is not very well received by the PRS hierarchy and he is only there as the seat belongs to PRS. Aarons close association with SPDP members runs foul of those in PRS. They want their own man in Kanowit but Aarons family ties with the former defunct PBDS Party president Leo Moggie still swings the pendulum to him. Aaron is likely to face a candidate from Sarawak Workers Party (SWP) and Thomas Laja from Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR). (White/Grey)

16. Ulu Rejang:-PRS anointed candidate Wilson Ugak will take on SWP George Lagong and PKR Abun Siu. However,Billy Abit says he is very much still confident and winnable as the incumbent and will be hoping that his more than ”cordial” links with his long term association with the Federal leaders will be enough for him to be renominated.  

Even former Kapit District council Chairman  has thrown his weight behind Billy Abit. Quoted statement:-Anyone can claim to be the next BN (Barisan Nasional) candidate in any constituency, but facts speak for themselves as Datuk Billy is still the MP, incumbent and the people in Baleh have been showing outstanding support for him,” 
17. Selangau:- The 13th general election, the Selangau seat is proving to be a tough battleground for its incumbent Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) deputy president Joseph Entulu. He will be faced with SWP defacto leader and former MP Sng Chee Hua and PKR’s likely candidate Josuha Jabeng. SWP and PKR are using personal issues to unseat Entulu. They are going round telling the voters that his “personal”intersts outweighs what is good for the Selangau are.

They said Entulu had no master plan for the development of Selangau that could generate incomes despite being its elected representative for more than 20 years.Even basic amenities like clinic, schools, clean water, electricity and roads are still lacking.

This rural enclave BN says takes time to develop and it steps are taken by the Entulu as he is the deputy rural and development minister. Sng will use whatever means to fight against his former junior colleague in PRS. This will be a closely watched battle as a former Deputy president of PRS Sng Chee Hua takes on the current deputy President. Who will win? Who is your last dollar on?   (Grey/Black)

PRS final tally would be 5 out of 6 winnable and hard fought wins. Which seat will fall remains questionable as it will depend very much on where both SWP and PRS concentrate their machineries. PKR would be hoping to capitalise on the weaknesses created by both SWP and PRS to steal ‘a seat” under their noses.

14 seats for PBB

PBB remains very united going into the GE13. There have been attempts which appeared in SarawakReport on loyalists of Taib Mahmud and Awang Tengah putting their own candidates but the party has stayed intact. Their operations room are all ready and equip with all the basic amenities required for the elections. One must never be complacent says a PBB senior leader and we know that there are some seats which will be tough. He named Limbang,Lawas,Batang Lupar and Sibuti where the candidates needs to put in the extra efforts to secure and maintain the winning streak for BN.

He further commented,”Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), the backbone of state BN, is confident of repeating its success by retaining all the 14 seats allocated to it.

18.  Igan :- Abdul Wahab bin Haji Dollah who has won the seat twice uncontested reminded us he can defend his seat in the coming general election as the opposition in the area is unorganised. (White)

19. Sibuti:- PAS Robby Tandang will take on incumbent MP Ahmad Lai in this seat. The issues are mainly personal on the ground against Ahmad Lai as the opposition is using his lack of appearance on the ground to campaign against him. Federal issues takes a back seat here. (Grey)

20.Samarahan:- This area will see a new face being introduced as Sulaiman Abdul Rahman Taib is not seeking re-election. A woman candidate district officer Rubiah Wang is highly tipped to be the candidate here. However, highly placed sources have also been informed that the son of a prominent Minister is also being touted to be Sulaimans replacement. Sulaiman posted a winning majority of 11,411 votes  defeating PKR’s Hussain Abang Apok and Independent Awg Bakar Awg Daud in 2008. (White)

21. Betong:- Noel Bucking from PKR will be the main challenger against Douglas Uggah Minister of Natural Resources and Environment who will be vying for his fifth term as a candidate. The main issue will be targetted on the “accordance of  respect to Betong’s Panglima Gagah Berani (PGB) holder Wilfred Gomez Malong” PKR said they will give Uggah a run for his money as he won the seat with a majority of 11,709 votes against Stanley Jugol of the Sarawak National Party in 2008. (White)

22. Petra Jaya:- This majority malay semi- urban seat of PetraJaya will see PBB Youth Chief Fadillah Yusof and also Deputy Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation locking horns with Sarawak Wanita PKR head Norhanim Mokhsen. Fadillah is quietly confident in securing another mandate from the people in Petrajaya eventhough he will be facing the PKR Sarawak Wanita chief. In 2008 Fadillah polled 19515 votes against PKR’s Mohamad jolhi who secured 5118 votes. (White)

23. Limbang:- Baru Bian PKR ADUN for Ba’Kelalan and PKR Sarawak Stae Liason chief will take on MP for Limbang Hasbi bin Habibolah. This is one seat where PBB will feel the “heat’ from PKR as in 2008 MP Hasbi polled 6427 against PKr’s Lau Liak Koi who garnered 5751 votes. The votes swing will determine whether PBB will be able to maintain its stranglehold on this seat. (Grey/Black) 

24. Lawas:- Henry Sum Agong in 2008 polled 8526 votes against PKR’s Japar Suyut who managed only 734 votes. However in this GE13 he will be challenged by a more credible candidate in veteran dentist in Dr.Bob Baru who will stand on a DAP ticket. Even the incumbent MP Henry acknowledge that,”Dr Bob is well-known to the people of Lawas and Ba Kelalan and he himself needs to intensify his efforts and up his ante” (White)

25. Mambong:- Tourism Deputy Minister Dr. James Dawos Mamit in 2008 polled 14182 against PKR candidate in Majen Panyog who garnered 7525. DAP is also interested in this seat in 2013 as their candidate from Mangan Ngandok has also stated his stand to be a candidate. PKR’s aspiring candidate would be Willie Mongin who is a Kuala Lumpur based businessman. This seat will be a toss up between the two Pakatan hopefuls against the incumbent MP Dr.James Dawos.( White/Grey)

26. Mukah:- In 2008 Dr.Muhammad Leo Michael Toyad Abdullah said this would be his last term as MP. He won convincing with 10090 against Independant Hai bin Merawin @Bonadventure who got 3792 votes. It seems though that he is being asked to stand again as there will be credible candidates from DAP or PKR who will try to wrestle this seat away from PBB. Wong Ho Leng the DAP Sarawak chief was quoted to say,”Yes, we certainly have a candidate, a local Melanau and if we stand together, we would be able to conquer Mukah,” (White)

27. Batang Sadong:- GE12 Nancy Shukri a first timer MP polled 8183 votes against Piee bin Ling of PKR who managed 2758. She has quietly done her work and been on the ground very often but aspiring PBB candidates are finding faults to have her replaced. The warlords are using all their muscle to ensure that she is not chosen and they have gone at times overboard in their quests. She remains the “winnable” lady candidate for the area and her approachability has created so many enemies in PBB who consider her fast rise and popularity within the party as a threat.Even Assistant Minister Naroden Majais is feeling undermined by her popularity which makes her supporters even more hopeful that she will win her 2nd elections with a far greater majority.(White/Grey)

28. Tanjong Manis:- Will Norah Abdul Rahman be fielded? This is a Sure win seat and anyone fielded in this constituency will face little or no resistance at all. Elected unopposed in 2008 Norah must have been very angry by the timing of the Global Witness video which implicated her sisters Fatimah and Norlia in the video.

Sources close to the Chief Minister said he was very upset and this could even affect Norah’s candidacy. It’s on everyones lips and fielding her might have serious repercussions on the whole outlook for BN Sarawak as a whole. Unless and if a scapegoat is found the candidacy of Norah remains “fluid”. PKR sources are monitoring the situation and could field a candidate from outside in the last minute to stop BN from winning uncontested again. (White)

29. Batang Lupar:- ABU Rohani(anyone but you) have been used to knock out the MP who is seen to be working very hard in the constituency. In 2008 she secured 11015 against her PAS candidate Abang Eddy Allyanni who managed 2923.

Her majority is so convincing that some aspiring candidates just cannot wait for her to call it a day to be named. She is presently the Deputy Minister of Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism and many locals have found her work satisfactory to say the least. There have been many unkind reports filed to discredit her good work.

Word from the Pakatan front is that PKR Sarawak SG Abang Zulkifli Abang Engkeh is the likeliest candidate to be fielded. However PAS have also made claims to the seat as they too are moving in the area.

Rohani said she was prepared and ready to take on whoever the Opposition decided to field against her in the seat. PBB in the surrounding areas needs to show all their support to her instead of trying to create a wedge and hamper the election machinery.

Truth be told this will be capitalised by Pakatan if left unchecked. (Grey/White)

30. Santubong:- Dewan Rakyat deputy speaker Dr Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar won handsomely by 15800 in 2008 against Rahamat Idil Latip who polled 3855. According to PKR sources their candidate in GE13 would be Zulrushdi Mohamed Hol.

Rumours in the Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) circles say that Junaidi is likely to be dropped from the list of candidates for the coming parliamentary election.

Will he? He is seen championing many issues of late and this could be a message to his political masters that he is still needed in Sarawak. The name of Dr Abang Draup Zamahari Abg Zen, chairman of State Housing Commission and Drahman Jaladin, PBB Deputy chief of Pantai Damai Branch have cropped up very often.

Meanwhile,Wan Junaidi however expressed his confidence that he would be renominated for Santubong, proven by the support from the people from Tanjung Datu to Demak Laut.
PKR would be capitalsing on the uncertainties within the PBB ranks to try to win says the insider source. (Grey/White)
31. Kapit:- MP Alexander Nanta won unopposed in 2004 and 2008 and if he is unopposed again in 2013 he will create a record of some sort in Sarawak. However, it seems that PKR will be fielding a candidate against him as they have identified and shorlisted two names in Edward Sumbang and Kennedy Paing.
Edward is the chairman of PKR Kapit branch. He stood in the recent state elections in a three cornered fight in Pelagus constituency and garnered 1300 votes against 5,000 votes garnered by George who won the election. Kennedy is a professional working in the oil and gas industry in Bintulu. (White)
GE13 is close at hand and all political analysts from both sides of the political divide in Sarawak are waiting for the dissolution of Parliament. All political parties will want to ensure that their candidates fielded are the winnable ones and are very much accepted by the voters of the constituencies.
BN4 Sarawak in will have to contend with not only the Pakatan group but also SWP and many aspiring Independants.
The days are numbered as to when the date of dissolution will be and the elections will have to be called not later than May 27th 2013.


19 thoughts on “SWC or Danger “Sure Win Candidate or Grey/Black”

  1. Alvin Chong says:

    Ooops! after my exposure on the video audie61 still says”can safely say BN will have at least 25 in the bag out of 31 seats” I must have done something wrong..Bet over kolok mee lah BN will loose more..Where can collect my kolok mee winnings audie61? Rubber road..

  2. lai lai says:

    Kong pun bo yong! Say also no use. BN shooting themselves in the feet all the time. DAP and PKR capitalising on the weaknesses of BN MPs. D-Day very near Najib n Taib

  3. Abang J says:

    My calculations :- SUPP 3 PRS 5 SPDP 3 PBB 13=24 quite similar to yours audie61 at 25 out of 31. My source says Sabah 5 seats will fall. BN in Sabah 20 plus Sarawak 24=44..up to Semanajung BN to make up the numbers. Very close..

  4. saratok update says:

    Front page Borneo posts:-http://www.theborneopost.com/2013/03/29/mawan-ready-for-saratok/ Mawan ready to be sent to the slaughter house like lambs ? He should stand down and give it to other professionals. He will be shown the door like George Chan,Sammy Vellu and Tsu koon the Gerakan,SUPP and MIC Presidents.
    Does he know the consequences? SPDP will be all gloom and doom.

  5. Bomoh Taib says:

    Aya susah lah, my hantu jin is telling you all – PBB lost 2, SUPP lost 5, SPDP lost 2, PRS lost 3, please total up for yourselves. More interesting is some Sarawak MPs will jump boat to PR after election, you know why lah. That will be followed by SWP 2 new MPs to PR. So Bomoh is preparing to retire also or swing to Anwar Ibrahim to cari makan

  6. james khoo says:

    The armchair assessments and “GOOSE HANGS HIGH “.But just watch your so called “WHITE FOR BINTULU AND SAMARAHAN “,it’s too ridiculous and I can bet with u that “CORRUPTION ISSUE ON PKFZ”is too contagious .As for Samarahan ,Rubiah Wang will be a “SACRIFICIAL LAMB” as a lot of ” Rotten Fish “will surfaced as a result of long drought . Just watch Baram ,Batang LAPAR ,Saratok and Mambong -There will be A KILLER BEES in those areas .

  7. Ferrari Gohet says:


  8. Powerplay says:

    loose74 Read sarawakheadhunters predictions. He just copied and paste without giving a full writeup.22 to 9 please on what ground he says.Hearsay,rumours,spins and coffeeshop. Lucky we have at times balance report from the group they call audie61 squad. They are BN but still can give us insights. PR mana ada? Cakap menang Putrajaya saja!! LOL!!

  9. Justice says:

    No matter how we predict as long as CM Taib is still around they will not be a Pakatan Government. He controls the wealth of Malaysia and together with Mahathir who at 88 years old is still going after Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar must want to see the end of Mahathir but it seems just not yet. The old hand in politics still have too much say. Changes will come when the 2 of them are not walking the EARTH. Cheers to all of you.

  10. 2012 hope says:

    Kalau wakil rakyat sudah berkhimat dengan cemerlang sepanjang mandte ,mereka tak perlu berubut-rebut dan bermati-matian berkeja sana sini untuk mendpatkan sokongan

  11. Political Observer says:

    Interesting articles. Fact is we are in uncharted waters. For the first time in our history, the opposition almost has the same tools as BN. BN use to monopolized the news through the Main stream media.Today we have the internet and radio free sarawak and the latest radio free malaysia which the opposition are using to the hilt. It would be interesting though to see the extend of the effect of those media in this coming election. However, there is something uncommon amongst the BN, their deafening silence! with global witness expose, strange but none, came to taib defence, many of the key people of spdp, supp, prs and pbb, seem to have disappear. The christians are the majority in Sarawak, although bipartisan, they have been praying for justice, against power abuse, against corruption , Allah issue?, etc. Over all, whether you are BN or PR, people generally are tired of this waiting and waiting game. If the element of surprise use to be BN advantage surely its no more. Further, almost everyday new scandal sufaces to the disadvantge of BN. All this should be factored in your analysis. Come G13, only God knows!

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