“71 Seats Status Quo..??”

The question on everyones lips is how will the Sarawak Pakatan group comprising of PKR,DAP.SNAP and PAS divide the seats allocation. Its appears the State BN according to BN political strategists will be using the same “Status Quo” breakdown of seats to the 4 coalition partners. PBB will be allocated the 35 seats SUPP 19 PRS 9 and SPDP 8. No matter how SPDP or PRS feels that they are entitle for more seats (based on their track records) as SUPP has losts terribly in the 2006 state elections it will not be entertained. 

PBB will have its Triennal delegates Conference on the 28th Feb-2nd March at the newly completed Borneo Convention Centre and after that its PRS TDC in Bintulu in May. Once these two parties have completed their respective general assemblies all eyes will be focussed on the Chief Minister as he alone will determine when it is the right time for a FRESH MANDATE from the people of Sarawak.

Unlike previous elections where there was much political calm,electorate generally demonstrated confidence and optimism in the leadership and policies of the incumbent BN government. BN has the proven track records but now the groundswell is different as the Pakatan group which made inroads in the 308 General elections are better prepared to assist their Sarawak counterparts.

The niggling and obvious question for the Pakatan group would be the breakdown of seats for the opposition front. DAP has obviously sounded their bugle charge with placing interests in the urban constituencies plus two or three semi urban/rural areas. Even newly elected DAP Chairman Sarawak Wong Ho Leng has indicated no less than 20 seats given that they have 6 State assemblyman in the DUN.

The State BN needs to be reassured that its coalition partner SUPPs politiking internally must end or else the Chinese urban electorate will surely turn to DAP. Too much infighting will also determine how the party will fare in this coming State elections and with a new kid on the block PCM(Party Cinta Malaysia) playing spoilers with intentions of contesting 30 seats the electorate will certainly be given a CHOICE. But the obvious contests will be between BN and Pakatan while PCM candidates will just split the votes. PCM has already indicated that they are more relevant than PKR.

Eventhough the mandate CLOCK is ticking ,BN knows that it needs to be prepared for a full-scale electoral offensive,backed by a well organised election machineryand superior resources.It should be unmatched by the opposition and surely the electoral battles in each constituency will be fought entirely on issues which will be localised in nature. The string or supermaket lists of issues which will be brought up by the opposition will not reflect much as compared to the bread and butter issues facing the people in the constituencies. 

The BN will obviously pick the right time according to a school of thought where all goodies will be showered down to the people of Sarawak and leave it with no choice but to return the mandate to BN. But will the political landscape which has embedded in eversince 308 prove us all wrong according  a veteran politician..?

Who would have thought Sammy Vellu,Kho Tsu Koon was defeated badly and Gerakan almost wiped out together with MIC. Will the Sarawak electorate move away from their comfort zone and change all that.? We still have our reservations….

It is without a doubt says a number of political observers that  the element of  FEAR remains for the Sarawak BN. The same sentiments plus other newer issues especially the “Allah” controversy if  left unchecked,unaddressed and not properly resolved  may have a snowballing effect especially with the percentage of 47% Christians in Sarawak.

Its a highly sensitive issue and as such Najib as Prime Minister needs to thread this line very carefully as statistics of past elections will not even be able to help the BN if the electorate in Sarawak so decides otherwise. Its a very thin line for the Federal government as any false move will no doubt be a major factor or bearing in the ballot boxes in the next Sarawak elections.

The consensus for the continuity of the Status quo in seat allocations will be a telling factor for the State BN. If there are all unison in seeing a fresh mandate for the BN and the leadership of Taib and a test of whether the electorate still believes in this equilibrium. The Sarawak electorate has so far passed their political education easily for the past 50 years and it is up to the opposition to ratlle the status quo.

The State BN parties will not need to look further than the wise remarks of Chinese Philosopher Sun Tzu(The art of war)in that it said,” it would be better to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy’s not coming,but on our readiness to receive him: not on the chance of his not attacking,but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable.”

So is the BN ready?The status quo of the coalition partners in PBB ,SUPP,PRS and SPDP will remain and there are no reasons to uproot the tree which has steadily proven that it has kept its promises to the electorates. Only if and when the Pakatan group can move the  comfort zones of the electorates in Sarawak it is without a shadow of a doubt that BN will still call the shots. Sort out your seats fast Pakatan Sarawak or you will return as fast to the abyss with the same bullet train.  

DID THE STATUS QUO TICKLE YOUR MIND AND GOT YOU THINKING….???   

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