Politics? Crossover? Changes…?

Location of Sabah
mohd shafie apdalMalaysiakini’s correspondent Syed Jaymal Zahiid posted his report http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/83858 ( The Unity, Culture Arts and Heritage Minister Shafie Apdal , when caught up by Malaysiakini at function this morning, said that though he viewed the initiative as good, the people in Sabah thought otherwise.”Perhaps they think the initiative by the government was not good enough but you cannot expect change to happen overnight,”

 

Our correspondent Bugi Wijaya from Will this do for Sabah?. The continuation….(THe GOODIES LAND) 

( Nothing much has happened politically in Sabah after the visit of PM with his announcement of the goodies for Sabah. Except for the normal official response for those of the state administration supporting PMs goodies, the outspoken few (including MPs) have kept to themselves their response. What has happen to Ghafur Salleh or for that matter Anifah Aman?  The only person who came of the blocks charging and  voicing his disagreement on cabinet committee to tackle the illegal immigrant issues is Supreme Council member of PBS (Parti Bersatu Sabah) Dr Chong Eng Leong. Could he be BARKING once too often? 
The General concensus from Sabahans is there is not much excitement created by the PMs goodies as everyone is talking about the increase in the price of rice and the impending increase in petrol price.

To make matters worse NST frontpage June 3rd 2008 headlines FUEL PRICE HIKE IN AUGUST?  Bread and butter issues the order of the day before dealing with the political scenarios which might or might not affect Malaysia. 

Sarawakians Want Political Reform!
Politics? Crossover? Some say it will never happen because Sabahans are never united and never can they agree on the same thing.  John, a Kadazanduzan was saying, “everybody wants to be the leader”.A good example of disunity among the KDM is the issue of the decorative “SIGAH” (which is a kadazandusun head gear) being constructed on the roundabolut leading to Penampang the heartland of the kadazan.  It faces east instead of west.  Mr Sylvester Didimond, President of the Kota Kinabalu/ Penampang Kadazan Society Sabah in his letter to the editor (in local Daily Express and the Borneo Post) raised a few points on why it should face west to welcome visitors to Penampang instead of the east which welcome people from the interior.  However, he failed to note that should it purpose be to welcome visitor instead of being decorative, than it should face all the roads leading to the roundabout.
As a solution the local authority should replace it with a Malaysian identity such as a rafflesia instead of depicting one race.
But the lesson to be learn is that the kadazandusun are disunited and as a kadazan society among the many kadazandusun society or associations whether the direction of the SIGAH is as important as fighting for the rights of the KDM as many of them especially in the interior and even in town are red i.c. holders (you can visit Stephan George of the Rawk in Penampang) unlike those that come from the neighbouring countires who hold blue i.c. and have even voted in the few past elections!
So will there be a crossover? No,EVERYONE  is too busy fighting among themselves……… BN TETAP MEMERINTAH! 

BN politicians like Yong Teck Lee from the Sabah People’s Progressive Party (SAPP) gave the BN leadership an August ultimatum – either solve the issues affecting Sabah or face defection.

(From MalaysiaKini) Tony Thien Sarawak Correspondent  | Jun 2, 08 writes
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/83809 Dr Jeffrey Kitingan Sabah-based PKR national vice-president said there was “nothing new at all” in the prime minister’s announcement on the cabinet committee the ‘goodies’ would not affect plans for the crossovers from the BN to Pakatan Rakyat in Sabah.

Our response to all the hoo hahs hoo hahs is very simple as we know Earthquakes and Tropical Storm like the one in Myanmar hits with a twinkling of an eye and for the BN leader to come out with a statement like Happen overnight this words should not even be uttered let alone said out in the open. Does he expect more from the PM or is he just using this oppurtunity to uplift his credibility for the upcoming UMNO elections…..? Sure, he did re-emphasised what the BN government has promised will be delivered and  “done with serious commitment.” 

The Sabahans will be the judge afterall the Ballot box is their voice. Time is on their side and they will not be fooled all the time as John reiterated. So we say again…  Are you all satisfied? Who benefits? Is this enough……………? 

Sabah MP defections is a “meticulous strategy” put up by Anwar to deflect from the real crossovers taking place. All attention and energy is on the Sabah MP’s and the UMNO MP’s in West Malaysia were free to plan the defections. Abdullah knows what he is up to and knows what is coming. He needs to sugar coat these spineless East Malaysian MP’s without even offering more Cabinet positions. Abdulah just cannot afford to as the UMNO MP’s in West Malaysia will bring the GUILLOTINE down…. What position in the Federal cabinet if I may ask again was Shafie Apdal given?  So can this all be pre-empt? Of course, for Abdullah and Anwar this is just their tactical moves as it will determine who hangs on to powers.

So as Charlie Wilson (US Congressmen) says “You think we can make all this up”………..)???

 

 

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Malaysiakini- Snap Polls Story

(Copied in full) for your own analysis and opinions

We argued that there will be a snap election anytime soon. We believe that even if the situation were such that Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi wanted to have one, his request might be rejected by the king.

Still, we think it’s worthwhile discussing what would be the likely outcome if a fresh election were to be held, which would only be at the federal level. Pakatan Rakyat would naturally refuse to hold fresh elections for the five states that it controls and there is no reason for Abdullah to call for fresh elections in the states that Barisan Nasional controls.

One school of thought is that the BN would gain ground because the people who had voted against it in the recent election would swing back, the rationale being that the message they wanted to send has been sent.

MCPX

that it’s unlikely

 

The other school of thought is that even those who had voted against the BN (but never really supported the opposition) are pleasantly surprised at the way the way the Pakatan states are being run and would like to see Pakatan control the Parliament as well.

Which is right? It depends on a lot of factors, actually.

As has always been the case in Malaysia, racial politics and sentiments are part and parcel of the political landscape. While the previous election has demonstrated the public’s capacity for some cross-ethnic voting, it’s still way too early to declare the end to racial politics and racial voting.

Pakatan has advantages in three areas

In a snap poll, there are still many issues that can be ‘racialised’. For example, Umno would probably stoke Malay fears that a Pakatan government would feature more non-Malays than Malays. Whether this kind of scare tactic would work or not hinges on de facto PKR leader Anwar Ibrahim’s ability to assure the Malay ground that their rights would not be eroded.

Of critical importance is how Pakatan would fare in East Malaysia. If Anwar is able to get whole parties, as opposed to individuals, to cross over, Pakatan would have a better chance of winning there.

In Malaysian politics, people tend to vote for parties rather than individuals. Even in Sabah and Sarawak, where independent candidates have a better track record of winning elections compared to Peninsular Malaysia, it’s by no means certain that a crossover MP running under the Pakatan ticket can win back his seat.

Pakatan however has clear advantages in three areas.

Firstly, it is willing to offer concessions that the BN is either unable or unwilling to give to the East Malaysians. We’re talking about things like a larger percentage of oil royalties; removing illegal immigrants from the electoral rolls; and even promising a deputy prime minister position to an East Malaysian.

Secondly, Anwar is now able to contest, not just for parliament but for the PM of the country. This is a big psychological boost for Pakatan. It’s actually better for him to do so in a general election than a by-election because BN would not be able to concentrate all its efforts on defeating him when it is contesting in seats all over the country.

Thirdly, Pakatan MPs have so far held themselves up quite well, debating vigorously in parliament. Also, it helps that they’ve not held their positions long enough for voters to be potentially disillusioned or dissatisfied with them.

The candidacy selection process is always a difficult one for both coalitions under any circumstances. Under the current scenario, Pakatan would have it considerably easier than BN. It could simply stick to its winning formula from the last election, and possibly offering even better candidates in the seats that it did not win.

BN to face even tougher election

BN, in contrast, will have a much more difficult time.

One of Abdullah’s big challenges would be to ease out incumbents who have fallen out of favour and replacing them with new candidates for different strategic reasons. With a looming leadership challenge from Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and a potential challenge from Muhyiddin Yassin as well as possibly Najib Razak himself, the complications surrounding this process would be manifold.

For example, should he drop Razaleigh or Muhyiddin now that it’s apparent they are against him? Can he afford not to nominate them given the internal repercussions of such a move, not to mention the real possibility that these seats may be lost to the opposition if these two leaders are not contesting?

Then there are the others who, though not challengers for the Umno presidency, have openly voiced their opposition to Abdullah’s leadership. We’re talking about people like Mukhriz Mahathir and Dr Mohd Khir Toyo. How about the pros and cons of nominating people like Shahrizat Abdul Jalil, who is a loyalist but who is unlikely to win back her constituency?

Whatever candidate mix Abdullah opts for, there’s bound to be discontent amongst the rank and file because Umno is currently so fragmented. The level of sabotage could reach historic proportions.

While there is uncertainty how the Malay ground would vote in a fresh election, especially if Umno politicians play up the race card, there is less uncertainty about how the non-Malays would vote. It’s highly unlikely that MCA, Gerakan or MIC would be able to improve on its performance in the last election.

While the leaders of the three parties have all become noticeably more outspoken, it’s also obvious that Umno is simply ignoring them, possibly because none of them are even cabinet members.

In contrast, non-Malay voters can also see for themselves that the DAP is by no means a junior partner in Pakatan and that has influence in the coalition, the likes of which MCA, Gerakan and MIC have never had in BN.

For the many reasons outlined above, we take a cautious view that Pakatan would actually fare even better in a new election than it did in the last one, which was already groundbreaking.